Analyzing Palin's decision

Last week, Sarah Palin surprised just about everyone when she announced she would be stepping down from her position as governor of Alaska early. Neither her motives or her plans for the future are really clear, so I decided to take a look at some possibilities for the reasons behind this startling move and what could come next in Palin’s political future.

1. The Good-Bye Government Possibility. First, let’s look at it at face value. It could be, as Palin said, an attempt to create change outside of government. I can definitely see her going around the country, speaking, writing books, and supporting conservative ideals, but never running for office again. I think that this is the best choice for her: she can still be influential without actually having to win any races.

2. The GOP Cheerleader Possibility. From here, she could also go on as a supporting role for the GOP. She could campaign for republican candidates, be kind of a behind the scenes woman. Her position wouldn’t be too different than Newt Gingrich’s. Again, this would let her continue to be influential while not actually being in government.

3. The Get Ahead for 2012 Possibility. Of course, there’s the possibility that this is all just a way for her to get a head start for 2012. Being governor of Alaska isn’t really conducive to campaigning for president, and the extra year or so she gets from stepping down early will let her gain momentum ahead of candidates like Romney or Huckabee. If this is the case, I think she’ll come to regret her decision: running against a popular incumbent without even a term as a governor to her name is not a good situation for her – or the GOP – to be in. Palin’s lack of experience has always been her weakest point, and her latest move makes things even worse.

4. The Get Out While she Still Can Possibility. Another possibility is that she is getting out of the governor’s office while she still can. Her ratings are far lower than they were before she ran for VP, and ongoing ethics investigations aren’t making anything better for her up in Wasilla. If she was planning to not run for reelection in 2010 in order to campaign for 2012, it could be seen as an admission that she couldn’t win reelection. That would be a disaster for any future presidential campaign. I don’t think, however, that, as some have suggested, she is running from another scandal. If so, we would have heard something by now, at least a leak.

5. The Prepare for a Future Election Possibility. Finally, there’s the possibility that she’s taking some time outside the spotlight to run in 2016 or later. I’ve heard this compared to Richard Nixon’s move in 1962, when he left politics after losing a race for the governor of California (he had earlier lost the 1960 presidential election to Kennedy). Nixon took the time between 62 and his subsequent run and victory in the 68 presidential election to repair his damaged media image, forge stronger ties with the right, and campaign for others. This time off helped him a lot in 68. Palin could do the same: grow her base, write a couple of books, travel the country, and prepare herself a little more for the next election. It wouldn’t be experience in government, but it would still be good for her. An added bonus is that she wouldn’t have to run against Obama. My only question in this situation is why quit now? If I were her, I would at least want to have one term as governor under my belt.

It will be interesting to see what Palin does now. This one decision could impact the rest of her political life – for better or for worse.