Afghanistan's run-off election: an opportunity for a turning point

Afghanistan isn’t exactly in a good position right now. Fighting what sometimes seems a futile war against a stubborn insurgency, wracked with corruption, and filled with foreign troops, things don’t look too good for the country.

Now, though, Afghanistan is at a turning point. The upcoming runoff election will have wide-ranging significance on the country and the war.

Let’s review. The Afghan election was originally held in August, and was immediately followed by widespread claims of fraud. These allegations lead to a United Nations Election Complaint Committee intervention and recount. After throwing out almost a quarter of all ballots as fraudulent, the Committee announced last week that incumbent president Hamid Karzai received 49.7% of the vote – the highest of the more than 40 candidates that ran for president but still not enough to secure Karzai a win. Because Karzai failed to achieve a majority, he must run against his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, in a runoff election on November 7.

This election provided an opportunity for a turning point in Afghanistan’s future, and the upcoming runoff election is a second chance for the country. As President Obama decides whether or not to send more Coalition troops to Afghanistan, the outcome of the election will greatly influence his decision.

Although Karzai was the clear frontrunner in the first round of the election, the upcoming runoff is far less predictable.

Let’s take a moment to compare the two candidates.

Karzai’s current government is corrupt and inefficient, and is largely failing at containing the Taliban. Karzai himself has strong ties to many individuals of a dubious nature; both of his vice presidential candidates, for example, have been accused of human rights violations by Human Rights Watch, an international human rights organization. One was accused of killing thousands of innocent people.

Abdullah, on the other hand, is seen as a symbol of a newer and younger Afghanistan, one that puts less power in the hands of tribal warlords and more in the hands of a more modern government. Simply put, he is a reformer.

It’s not hard to guess who I’m rooting for. But more interesting than who wins the election is the far-reaching consequences of any result.

A victory for Abdullah would be the perfect opportunity for the Obama administration to intensify efforts to secure Afghanistan. A new government, with more focused power in the central government and more support from the people, would be more effective at helping Coalition troops oust the Taliban.

However, if Karzai wins the election, or even worse, it is confounded yet again by fraud, Obama may need to reevaluate his priorities with Afghanistan. Fighting the Taliban is bad enough by itself, but fighting the Taliban in a country unsupportive of its government could end up a disaster.

This need for support especially ties into a key objective of the war in Afghanistan, and one that I consider of tantamount importance: winning the hearts and minds of the Afghan people.

Modern technology lets even a single individual become a weapon in the form of a suicide bomber. A single Afghani citizen turned against America can cause the death of many. On the other hand, a single Afghani citizen turned away from the Taliban can save many lives. And young men aren’t the only ones who need to be convinced. In Afghanistan, it’s considered shameful and disgraceful for a man to enter the Taliban without first getting blessing and permission from his mother.

So, for debatably the first time in history, winning civilian support is as important or even more important than succeeding militarily. And if Coalition forces are to capture the hearts and minds of Afghan citizens, the Afghan government that America and its allies support must be appealing to those same Afghan citizens.

As President Obama approaches a major decision on whether or not to send more troops to Afghanistan, he’s obviously considering the political situation of the country. The winner of the runoff election, and more importantly, its fairness, will significantly affect the success or failure of the war in Afghanistan.